Since last year's essay Notes from a Baseball Dilettante was so popular I decided to keep a journal for this year and share it on the blog.I will be adding to this as the season moves along.
April 1 The 2021 Baseball season has commenced, and
we still have leftover COVI-19 issues. A positive test brought the cancellation
of the opening week series between the Mets and the Nationals. There were
viewers in the stands, but they were few, spread out and wearing masks. For
most teams, the season started when it was supposed to, albeit in the middle of
a week.
Unlike previous drafts, I did not come away
with a feeling of dread. Instead, I felt pretty good about my choices. The post-draft
analysis done by an algorithm rated the drafted team a C+. While I don't take this
too seriously (one year, it graded my team with a D, and we made it to the last
round of the finals), the C+ did fortify my feeling that I did all right in the
draft.
April 5. The
Dragons did well on this first abbreviated week of online baseball. They not only
vanquished the opponent for the week but finished with the most points in the
league. I am reminded of my father's expression whenever he won the first round
of a family poker game. "You can't win all the games if you don't win the
first one." Wishing that such would be the fate of the Diamond Dragons
this season, but reality indicates otherwise. There are some strong teams out
there, and the first week let alone a short one, is not much of a harbinger of
things to come.
April 9 We have not finished the second week, and the Dragons are already
crippled with injuries. Injuries are an unavoidable curse. Two of mine are
pitchers, Trevor Rosenthal a closer, and James Paxton a starter. Of the two,
the former is the more upsetting. He was picked up early in the draft (8th)
as part of a strategy to increase save opportunities. Relief pitchers who save
games for their team add as many points as a starting pitcher's win. Considered an asset Trevor Rosenthal only
lasted a week. Paxton, on the other hand, was a late pick and borderline
disposable. Disposables are those I am willing to trade-off for another starting
pitcher at any time.
I pick up an elite starting pitcher on the
first round of the draft. This is a common strategy, and this year I was 10th
in the draft lineup. Fortunately, Trevor Bauer, who ranks 4th among
all starting pitchers, was available. He put up a respectable 20 points in each
of the first two weeks, but now he is under investigation for putting a foreign
substance on the baseballs. Not a drama I need. If this results in a suspension,
the Dragons will be even more crippled than they are right now.
April 11
Here is a new wrinkle, a byproduct of baseball in the pandemic. Yankee third
baseman Gio Urshela went out on a special IL list for players who experience a
reaction to the vaccine. Unlike other ILs, this one has no minimum time, and
the player can return to the game as soon as he feels well enough. But it does
free up the team to bring in a replacement from the minors for a game or two.
Typically, reactions to the vaccine only last about twelve hours, but coaches
can significantly influence whether a player "feels well enough" to
play. Urshela returned to the lineup the following day.
April 14 The
Dragons had a great night last night, putting up 98 points. The team started
the season rising to lead in total points, then to lose that position. Last
night put the Dragons back on top. Some regression is going to happen. I hope
when that pullback comes, it not so severe as to knock the team off this perch.
I have come to realize that this game is a bit like the stock market. You
cannot go up forever. At some time, a correction comes. I have found that it is
best to have a balanced portfolio with the market, so you go down in the hits
but not as bad as the overall market. I think the same is true with online
baseball, and a balance of batters and pitchers can make the regression less
painful. That is the way I draft, and if I can do that properly and keep that
perspective in mind during the season, I usually do ok.
April 22 Regression
is like a Venus flytrap. Once in it, you cannot get out, and the more you move,
the worse things get. This fourth week of our season is one of serious
regression for the Dragons.
It began with ominous signs; three of the
batters were up against tough pitchers for the week, and there was a shortage
of two-start pitchers on the roster. In fantasy baseball, pitchers who start
two games in a single week are an asset if they pitch reasonably well. I tried
to improve the batting situation by adding two promising hitters. So far, one
has contributed only three points, and the other has racked up minuses all week.
I moved, and the regression trap tightened.
This
week the Dragon's only two-start pitcher was Zach Plesac, who cost the team fourteen
points in week three. Strong performances by other Dragons minimized that damaging
loss. This week he suffered another defeat and finished on the plus side with
one lousy point. Any chance he had of redeeming himself later with a second
start vanished as schedule changes made him a one and done for the week.
Schedule changes plagued the Dragons this
week. I selected a pitcher scheduled to
toss against the Detroit Tigers, a poor batting team. His schedule changed, and
now he faces Minnesota Twins, who currently have the fourth-highest batting average
in Major League Baseball. Another move and regression's sticky leaves close tighter.
A change in our league's rules ended my trading spree for the week, and now all I can do is helplessly watch through the windshield as the brakes fail, the steering wheel locks, and the car careens towards a brick wall. Perhaps the essence of the Dragons will resurrect in week five.
May 1 By luck, my opponent last week appeared to be
suffering from regression as well. The Dragons managed to eke out a win last
week and went into round 5, still undefeated. Dragons had plenty of starting
pitchers and faced a weak opponent ranked tenth out of twelve going into round
six. But regressions can be long-lasting and damaging. We are two days away
from the end of week six, and the Dragons are thirty points behind. The feeble
opponent is having a good week ahead of over 80% of the rest of the league. We are even on the Starting Pitchers available,
which does not bode well. I looked at who was out there as potential add-ons,
but no one looked promising.
May 3 This week, the regression took its toll on the record. The Dragons never recovered from the thirty points deficit, and the opponent had a good week with ten players outperforming the league average. He beat out almost 60% of the league. It is the Dragon's first loss of the season, and only one of the twelve teams is still undefeated. Because the team owner traded players for draft spots two years ago, he has a team that right now appears unstoppable. One thing is for sure, if the Dragons are still in this slump when it goes up against that team, all will be lost.
May 11 While the numbers have improved somewhat from their jump off the cliff in week four, they are still below three hundred and have brought about two defeats in a row. The Dragons are 4-2 as we move into week seven. The CBS algorisms project the Dragons to win this week, but such were the predictions for the two weeks they lost. Projections are only but so valuable. The outcome of this week will decide in my mind if we have pulled out of our regression. My efforts to stem the tide have had little impact. A possible natural change may happen later this week if Jarred Kelenic of Seatle comes up from the minors. Reports on him have been highly encouraging, and I can sluff off Dominic Smith, who has been a slacker for much of the season.
May 16 What a disaster week 7 was! Not only did my
opponent score higher than anyone else in the league, breaking 400, but injuries
sidelined three of my players were with and illnesses, including Corey Seager,
my shortstop and lynchpin for the team. The team made it over the 300-point
hurdle, barely. It is no longer first in the division, and its power ranking has
fallen. Once again, the CBS algorisms project the Dragons to win the week, and
this time it was way off. Yes, Jarred Kelenic came up from the minors, but so
far, his performance has been unremarkable, and he has been of no consolation.
Are will still in a period of regression? I am afraid so, and with Seager gone,
the wheels have come off the bus.
Over twenty-five percent of my originally drafted team is either on the IL or drop from injury. I no longer think this is a regression, but that all these injuries have reduced the power of the Dragon's, possibly to the point of no return. At the beginning of the season, Dragons ranked number 1 in power, now ranks fifth. But baseball is an optimistic activity. So I rationalize like I always do; it a long season, plenty of time left to turn things around, other teams suffer injuries too. But deep down, I think the Dragons are doomed for the 2021 season.
June 1
Another week, another defeat. In search of a temporary replacement for Corey
Seager, I brought in Jazz Chisholm of the Miami Marlins, who immediately hurt
himself and was useless for the rest of the week. Unfortunately, because I was short
on two-start pitchers and plagued with other injuries, I used up all three of my
weekly ration of trades and had to watch helplessly while the nightly message
for my shortstop was "Not in the lineup."
Another constraint that negatively impacts
the Diamond Dragons is the limitation on the number of players I can keep
sidelined on the Injured List(IL). So many injuries I have forced me to drop
two players who were part of the original draft. One who had great promise had
been on the IL since the second week of the season.
limitation. I made a line graph of my scores, and it looks like the regression ended in week 7. That week the Dragons had their best score, but the opposition had the highest score of any team in the league so far for that season. If it weren't for bad luck, the Dragons would have no luck at all.
At
this point, I am beginning to ask myself if it might be better to blow the 2021
season off and start to offer my best players in trade for extra slots in the 2022
draft. The league member who did that before this season has the best score
right now.
June 18 It looks like the Dragons are catching a
break this week. Last week's defeat to the weakest team in the league was such
a low point there was only up to go. This week the Dragons had multiple two-start
pitchers and were up against a team that they a record of beating, including earlier
this year when the team swept the division. So far, the Dragons have a
comfortable lead and are in a position of strength that should sustain them for
the rest of the week.
June 29 The Dragons notched another win, this time against the top-ranked team in the division. The Dragons remain undefeated within the division and completely skunked by all the other teams. I don't know what that means, except maybe the division the Dragons wound up in this year is the weakest of the three. One thing is for sure the last two wins are not indications of a breakout. So far this season, the Dragons peaked in week three.
I was offered to trade space in next year's draft for a good utility player. When I checked the offeror's roster, I discovered the player was on the bench, meaning that team was light a pitching slot, a condition I knew the coach would not tolerate for long. Sure enough, the batter was thrown onto the wavier, and I scooped him up without sacrificing a round in next year's draft.
But injury comes even in a good weed. This time it was my doing. I dropped Will Myers, whose slash line is pitiful for Teoscar Hernandez, who, after several hours of research, I realized he was up against some very week pitchers for the rest of the week. No sooner do I get him on board than he goes out on paternity, and he will not be back until Monday. What I failed to research obviously was the man's family life.